Humpty Dumpty is ready to fall
Humpty Dumpty had a great wall
All the premiers horses and all the party men
Couldn't put the party back together again
In my story, a work of fiction, the climatic event will be the catalyst for what will be the break up of Red China. Something that will be significant in future volumes. But outside of fiction I believe we will see Red China break apart in the very near future. Even within a years time. Why?
Recently on the BBC they covered the spread of Christianity in China, the actual promotion of Christianity by the state. China is actually studying the link between western prosperity and Christianity and see Christianity as beneficial. Of course we would see this, state authorized religion, as a false form of Christianity, but where the word is life will bloom. They cannot control a true Christian spirit which will arise. They will never undermine the underground churches. However that is far from the biggest threat to China's cohesion. But it does point to the inherent contradictions in Chinese society. Contradictions that are severe, wide spread and numerous. Contradictions that will soon destroy what we know as China today.
First of all the destruction of China is secured in the loss of their traditional society. The rock solid inherent social and family structures nurtured by centuries of Confucianism and other eastern religious influences are being destroyed by the one child policy and materialism. They do not have enough children to take care of the elderly in traditional fashion. A newly married couple has four parents, perhaps eight grandparents, to care for with no other siblings to rely on. And they can't. But this is just a symptom of the deep contradiction between traditional values and materialism sweeping the hearts and minds of the youth. Some of this contradiction is assuaged by new religions and welfare for the elderly policies, but this dilemma is one of the strongest stresses on the culture. It was only those tradition social structures that allowed China to keep its cohesion throughout the Cold War.
Next you still have hidden deep resentments over Tiamen Square. The contradiction between the mind seeking freedom, especially in the youth, and an oppressive government that suppresses free thought. This spirit of revolt is being fed by what is going on in the Muslim world.
Of course you have the deep contradictions between the rich and poor, the rural and urban societies. A demand for manufacturing jobs and the race to keep pace with the demand. And even in the cities, those chasing the dream of prosperity find themselves trapped in slavish conditions, all the while living among the filthy rich flaunting their opulence. And the blunt reality is much of China's growth was planned, driven by infrastructure projects that cannot continue. Yet ...massive resources have been consolidated among groups and individuals, resources that can be directed to support causes those holding them see as beneficial to them.
Then their is the judicial system in which the wealthy and the party members seem immune to prosecution. Where corruption is ignored while the people suffer. Environmental catastrophes are severe and the idealists in the communist party have joined with lawyers and community groups to battle them, through the courts, as well as other forms of corruption.
And this points to the deepest contradiction of all. The contradiction within the communist party itself, between the corrupt and idealistic, between the militarists and those who may recognize a shared prosperity with the rest of the world. As the students, those fighting through the courts often with party officials support, and those suffering under the economic inequality among others, all find themselves struggling together as the traditional structures of society break apart, with availability to massive consolidations of capital, the ruling party will divide in contradictory directions.
Hopefully the idealists will win, but they will never be able to hold the entire nation together. If the corrupt group wins there will be a blood bath. This theory is all based on the concept that something trapped in severe contradiction cannot continue to exist. Or you can look at it from the communist perspective. That struggle, thesis and anti-thesis battling, produces something better, a synthesis. Still I do not believe they can keep their country together. All this will not mean the end of the communist party, but with their openness to Christianity, a religion that is capable of providing order in turmoil, the path to the end of dialectical materialism, atheistic communism, will be clear. China as a military threat, outside of their nuclear arsenal, will be non-existent.
